The U.S. CPI for September exceeded expectations, but initial jobless claims data suggest that employment still faces pressure. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve starting a rate-cutting cycle and refocusing on employment risks, a rebound in inflation is not actually a bad thing for gold prices. The continuation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also supports gold prices, and the medium-term trend for gold is still positive; in the long term, against the backdrop of global fiat currency devaluation, geopolitical conflicts, and increasing economic uncertainty, the value of gold allocation stands out. For copper, the macro tailwinds are still present, and the supply logic is strengthened, making copper mining stocks a continuous value proposition.

Gold: The U.S. CPI for September exceeded expectations, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain high, keeping gold prices strong. This Friday, the closing price of London gold was $2,657.03 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.1%.

1) The U.S. CPI for September exceeded expectations, but initial jobless claims data indicate that employment still faces pressure: On the evening of October 10th, the U.S. released September CPI data, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, expected to be 0.1%, and the previous value was 0.2%, with a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, expected to be 2.3%, and the previous value was 2.5%; the core CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month, expected to be 0.2%, and the previous value was 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.2%, and the previous value was 3.2%. Overall, the CPI rebounded month-over-month, and the year-over-year reading continued to decline, with subtle structural changes. On one hand, the core goods inflation turned positive month-over-month in September, and the year-over-year increase recovered from -1.7% to -1.2%. Looking at the leading Manheim used car price index year-over-year, the core goods CPI year-over-year may continue to rise in the next 2-3 months. At the same time, core service inflation remains strong, rebounding month-over-month, and also slightly rebounding year-over-year. On the other hand, housing inflation decreased month-over-month from 0.5% to 0.2% (previous fluctuations generally ranged from 0.3% to 0.5%), and year-over-year from 5.2% to 4.8%, which cooled down this CPI data. If subsequent housing inflation fails to continue its weak trend, the U.S. may face potential inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, on the evening of October 10th, the U.S. announced that the number of initial jobless claims was 258,000, higher than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 225,000, indicating that the job market still faces slowing pressure (although this data was disturbed by Hurricane Helene). Overall, against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve starting a rate-cutting cycle and refocusing on employment risks, a rebound in inflation is not actually a bad thing for gold prices.

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2) The continuation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East: Following the assassination of Hamas leader Haniya at the end of July, and the death of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Nasrallah in an Israeli airstrike at the end of September, relations between Iran and Israel have gradually become tense. In the early morning of October 2nd, Iran fired about 200 missiles at Israel, and Israeli officials later stated that they were seeking significant retaliation against Iran, with the target possibly being Iran's oil production facilities. On October 12th, U.S. officials reported that Israel had narrowed its targets for striking Iran, with military and energy infrastructure potentially becoming targets, and action could be taken at any time. Geopolitical sentiment also supports gold prices. The medium-term trend for gold is still positive, and in the long term, against the backdrop of global fiat currency devaluation, geopolitical conflicts, and increasing economic uncertainty, the value of gold allocation stands out.

Related targets include: Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), Silver Tai Gold (000975.SZ), Chifeng Gold (600988.SH), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), China National Gold (600489.SH), Western Gold (601069.SH), Zhaojin Mining (01818), Hengbang Shares (002237.SZ), and Pengxin Resources (600490.SH), etc.

Copper: Macro tailwinds are still present, and the supply logic is strengthened, making copper mining stocks a continuous value proposition. 1) Macro sentiment briefly cooled, and copper price resilience is highlighted: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in November have gradually been revised from 50bp to 25bp, coupled with a slight cooling of optimism for domestic stimulus policies. This week, copper prices slightly回调ed from around $10,000/ton to a minimum of $9,606/ton, closing at $9,803/ton. Domestic and foreign macro tailwinds are still present, and expected repairs will provide trading opportunities again. 2) Domestic refined copper production declined in September, and the pace of new smelting capacity slowed: SMM data shows that domestic refined copper production in September was 1.0043 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9%, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, with production下行兑现. Some smelters have postponed their production plans due to difficulties in raw material procurement. 3) The copper price center is moving up, and the configuration value of copper mining rights is continuously看好: Under the soft landing assumption, it is difficult for the copper price center to significantly回调, and the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. The copper price center is moving up, and the configuration value of the rights side is emphasized.

Related targets include: Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Western Mining (601168.SH), Jiangxi Copper (600362.SH), Jinchengxin (603979.SH), Tongling Nonferrous (000630.SZ), and Minmetals Resources (01208), etc.