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Creating a Long-Term Bull Market in Stocks

Around the National Day holiday, the Chinese stock market experienced a robust rally, instantly enlivening the long-slumbering capital market and boosting morale. The subsequent pullback and consolidation phases are normal occurrences. Moving forward, avoiding drastic fluctuations in the stock market and advancing steadily towards a long-term bull market to safeguard China's long-term economic growth is a test of the regulatory authorities' wisdom and investors' resolve.

Some individuals believe that the recent stock market surge has a strong "policy bull" flavor, leading to various doubts about its sustainability. Indeed, this time, the central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the Financial Regulatory General Bureau, as well as financial authorities like the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance, have all proactively expressed their support for the positive and healthy development of the capital market. They have introduced several high-quality, macro-oriented policies and strengthened inter-departmental communication and coordination, which has played a positive role in boosting confidence and expectations.

Policies are inherently an essential component of the market ecosystem. The socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics should fully and actively leverage the guiding role of policies. Guiding and incentivizing the healthy development of the capital market through favorable policies is the responsibility of relevant departments. Not only is it blameless, but it should also be highly praised. The market's positive feedback has fully proven this point. More importantly, the proactive actions of multiple departments targeting the capital market have practically refuted the "financial stigmatization" rhetoric of some ill-intentioned individuals over a period, playing a significant role in rectifying chaos and restoring order, with noticeable effects.

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The ideal scenario is to use the policy bull to catalyze a market bull to follow suit. Currently, the scale of funds entering the market and trading volumes fully indicate that the market bull has already shown its strength. The Chinese stock market is not short of funds but confidence, so managing expectations well is crucial. The current consolidation in the stock market is part of normal market competition and investor education. Rather than allowing the stock market to soar unchecked, with rampant speculative capital leading to a crash that severely undermines confidence, it is better to have a slow bull market that moves steadily forward. Next, all parties should implement the measures already introduced and work together to open channels for patient capital to enter the market, injecting ample liquidity into the stock market.

It needs to be emphasized that the realization of a market bull cannot be separated from the protection of regulatory authorities. An effective market cannot be without an active government, and stock market stability is an inherent part of the socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics. While guiding patient capital into the market, relevant departments should quickly introduce a stabilization fund and prepare for stock market stability. On one hand, let regulation have teeth, and on the other hand, have ample funds and a rich toolkit to moderate market irrational fluctuations. Only by fully stabilizing the stock market and ensuring its stable and healthy development can we fully maintain the confidence of the majority of investors and better realize the various functions of the stock market.

In the process of stabilizing the stock market, regulatory authorities should seize the opportunity to decisively and orderly advance the basic system construction that is crucial for the long-term stability of the stock market, allowing the market bull to grow into a system bull and a rule of law bull. All parties should make real efforts to streamline the entire regulatory process from listing to delisting, improve the quality of listed companies, and ensure that competition and investor choice lead to the survival of the fittest, thereby truly achieving the original intention of improving capital efficiency through the capital market. A particularly prominent issue at present is to significantly improve the governance structure of listed companies, encourage shareholders to manage market value through buybacks and other means, and regulate the reduction of major shareholders, preventing the stock market from becoming an ATM for major shareholders.

While doing the aforementioned "tactical" level work, it is essential to deeply recognize that the long-term bull market of the stock market ultimately cannot be separated from the long-term positive fundamentals of the Chinese economy. People value the gold content and scale of the comprehensive incremental policies of relevant departments because they hope to see the pace of China's economic recovery faster and the foundation of recovery more solid, thereby providing stronger support for the development of the stock market. The healthy development of the stock market, in turn, will provide strong feedback to the real economy. Of course, none of this happens overnight and requires people to make great efforts and patience, to effectively advance the resolution of local debt, to quickly let the real estate market stop falling and rise, and to actively cultivate and strengthen new engines and new drivers of China's economy.

Despite facing various challenges, the fundamental long-term positive trend of the Chinese economy has not changed, and China's capital market and real economy will surely form a positive two-way cycle, thereby bringing abundant returns to investors. Currently, the "Promotion Law of the Private Economy (Draft)" is soliciting opinions, and the response from all parties is enthusiastic. The main body of listed companies is private companies, and all parties should work together to let the spring of private companies be realized first in the capital market.

In summary, through the efforts of all parties, playing a combination of short-term policy guidance and long-term system construction, actively cultivating patient capital, and striving to consolidate the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, the long-term bull market of the Chinese stock market is值得期待.


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